British Prime Minister Theresa May has announced her intention to call a snap general election on June 8, an unexpected move intended to cement her position as Brexit negotiations begin.
May had repeatedly insisted she would not call an early election in the months and weeks before her statement. As recently as March 20, a spokesperson said “There isn’t going to be one … we have been clear that there isn’t going to be an early general election and the Prime Minister is getting on with delivering the will of the British people.”
There are plenty of reasons for her reversal. Firstly, she now leads the country without a popular mandate, having won the office of Prime Minister by becoming leader of the Conservative Party and succeeding Cameron on July 13, 2016 just three weeks after Britain voted to leave the European Union.
Secondly, polls suggest May would be strongly favored to win if a general election were held. A poll released over the Easter Weekend gave her Conservative Party a 21-point lead over the main opposition Labour Party, a record. The ComRes poll gave the Tories a 46-point share of the vote to Labour’s 25 points.
Thirdly, May might now feel that with Brexit negotiations about to start she needs to have the support of the people behind her approach. She is set to pursue a “hard Brexit” in discussions with Europe, withdrawing the country from the E.U’s single market and customs agreement in order to have tighter controls on immigration. It’s likely that the general election would be fought over the terms of withdrawal.
Calling a general election is no simple matter — it requires approval by a parliamentary supermajority, thanks to the Fixed Term Parliament Act passed in 2011 by the coalition government led by David Cameron. Two-thirds of members of parliament (MPs) would have to approve an early election, or 434 of the 650 lawmakers in the House of Commons. May’s party currently has only 330 seats, meaning she would need to convince over 100 lawmakers from rival parties to vote for an early election.
It's thought a large majority of MPs would back her call for a vote, however. Moderate lawmakers within the Labour Party might welcome an early defeat just to rid themselves of their leader Jeremy Corbyn, who is widely unpopular outside of his near fanatical support on the far left. The Scottish National Party, which commands 54 seats in Westminster, might enjoy the opportunity to demonstrate their strength ahead of a possible second independence referendum.
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